Trend · rank 153 of 250

Insurance retreat & insurability

Rising losses are leading insurers to withdraw from or reprice exposed regions and activities, shifting risk to households, lenders and public budgets and reducing the mortgage lending that depends on cover.

Financial StrengthEnergy, networks & climate resilienceclimatedebt financeresilience

Second pass: Carried forward from the first pass unchanged. Held by two of the three panel models.

Attention over three years

How much this trend is read about on Wikipedia and searched for on Google, week by week, set against the typical trend in the list so that what moves every trend at once is taken out. 100 is this trend's own three-year average. The score measures public attention, which is not the same as the strength of the force: a trend can deepen unnoticed, and a news event can lift attention for a fortnight.

Now: 125
Over a year: +30%Rising
Over three years: −10%
Peak: 2676 Oct 2024
Sources: Bothagreement 0.60
Coverage: 1language · 27 nations

Trailing 4-week average. 100 is this trend’s three-year average.

By language

Wikipedia reading in each language edition where the trend’s pages are read enough to measure (1 of 28). Share is of all the readers counted.

Language	Share	Now	Over a year	Three years
English	100%	109	+17%

By country

Google search interest over the three years, as a share of each country’s searching. 100 is the nation where interest is highest. The search terms are English, which favours countries that search in English.

United States

Australia

South Korea

New Zealand

United Kingdom

Canada

Ireland

Singapore

Malaysia

United Arab Emirates

Netherlands

Philippines

100

The 12 highest of 27 nations with a reading.

By region and G20 member

Attention to this trend inside each place, from Google searches made in its countries and Wikipedia reading in the languages mostly read there, averaged where both exist. Each line compares the trend with its own past in that place; the lines do not compare places.

Regions

Place	Read from	Now	90 days	1 year	3 years
North America	Google in 2 countries + Wikipedia in English	120	+41%	+21%	+38%
Europe	Google in 4 countries	109	+62%	−8%	−13%
Indo-Pacific	Google in 2 countries	81	+10%	+67%	−44%
South Asia	Google in 1 country	220	+66%	+244%	+113%
Gulf and Middle East	Google in 1 country	87	+27%	−31%	−33%

G20 members

Place	Read from	Now	90 days	1 year	3 years
Australia	Google	103	+21%	−11%	+7%
Canada	Google	179	+32%	+89%	+190%
France	Google	144	+93%	+1%	+42%
Germany	Google	76	+55%	−40%	−41%
India	Google	220	+66%	+244%	+113%
South Korea	Google	65	+0%	0%	−64%
Türkiye	Google	87	+27%	−31%	−33%
United Kingdom	Google	151	+57%	+81%	+11%
United States	Google + Wikipedia in English	112	+48%	+11%	+24%

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.

Relation	Scenario	Family
5 · Very high	A major disaster disables the national economic core S07	Energy, climate and resources
2 · Low	A regional war closes a globally important sea route S03	Geopolitical and security
1 · Very low	A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets S02	Economic and trade
1 · Very low	Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale S15 ↗	Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not related	Critical trade divides into rival blocs S01	Economic and trade
0 · Not related	Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout S04	Geopolitical and security
0 · Not related	A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government S05	Geopolitical and security
0 · Not related	Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis S06	Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not related	An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement S08	Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not related	A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust S09	Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not related	A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity S10	Health
0 · Not related	A creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity S11 ↗	Economic and trade
0 · Not related	A cross-regional market access compact redirects investment S12 ↗	Economic and trade
0 · Not related	A great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers S13 ↗	Geopolitical and security
0 · Not related	A verified Middle East settlement restores access S14 ↗	Geopolitical and security
0 · Not related	A validated farming package raises water-efficient output S16 ↗	Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not related	AI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step S17 ↗	Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not related	A public service platform reaches inclusive operation S18 ↗	Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not related	Affordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness S19 ↗	Health
0 · Not related	A live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence S20 ↗	Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

Similarity	Trend	Theme	Rank
5 · Very high	Disaster risk finance	Energy, networks & climate resilience	209
3 · Moderate	External liquidity buffer requirements	Money & debt	46
3 · Moderate	Domestic capital market deepening	Money & debt	55
3 · Moderate	International climate finance gaps	Money & debt	129
3 · Moderate	Dams, reservoirs & flood defence	Energy, networks & climate resilience	137
3 · Moderate	Urban cooling infrastructure	Energy, networks & climate resilience	151
3 · Moderate	Sustainable finance & environmental risk	Money & debt	161
3 · Moderate	Resilient construction & asset adaptation	Energy, networks & climate resilience	194
3 · Moderate	Early-warning coverage	Energy, networks & climate resilience	204