Trend · rank 113 of 250

Research security & science decoupling

Security restrictions and geopolitical mistrust are limiting research collaboration, student exchange and data sharing between rival blocs, slowing the diffusion of knowledge and narrowing national access to international science.

Information & InfluenceDiplomacy & influencegeoeconomicsinstitutionswork skills

Second pass: Carried forward from the first pass unchanged. Held by all three panel models.

Attention over three years

How much this trend is read about on Wikipedia and searched for on Google, week by week, set against the typical trend in the list so that what moves every trend at once is taken out. 100 is this trend's own three-year average. The score measures public attention, which is not the same as the strength of the force: a trend can deepen unnoticed, and a news event can lift attention for a fortnight.

Now: 123
Over a year: −2%Steady
Over three years: +136%
Peak: 19222 Feb 2026
Sources: Bothagreement 0.36
Coverage: 3languages · 60 nations

Trailing 4-week average. 100 is this trend’s three-year average.

By language

Wikipedia reading in each language edition where the trend’s pages are read enough to measure (3 of 28). Share is of all the readers counted.

Language	Share	Now	Over a year
English	68%	99	−11%
Chinese	27%	104	−2%
Japanese	5%	127	+46%

By country

Google search interest over the three years, as a share of each country’s searching. 100 is the nation where interest is highest. The search terms are English, which favours countries that search in English.

Singapore

South Korea

China

United States

Netherlands

Kenya

Nepal

Canada

Pakistan

Israel

Philippines

Australia

100

The 12 highest of 60 nations with a reading.

By region and G20 member

Attention to this trend inside each place, from Google searches made in its countries and Wikipedia reading in the languages mostly read there, averaged where both exist. Each line compares the trend with its own past in that place; the lines do not compare places.

Regions

Place	Read from	Now	90 days	1 year	3 years
North America	Google in 2 countries + Wikipedia in English	105	−31%	−9%	+69%
Europe	Google in 5 countries	122	−36%	+69%	+176%
Indo-Pacific	Google in 3 countries + Wikipedia in Japanese, Chinese	108	−33%	+25%	+69%
South Asia	Google in 2 countries	90	−43%	−10%	+36%

G20 members

Place	Read from	Now	90 days	1 year	3 years
Australia	Google	108	−55%	+72%	+71%
Canada	Google	117	−38%	+71%	+108%
France	Google	88	−45%	−4%	+89%
Germany	Google	148	−44%	+238%	+927%
India	Google	100	−36%	+2%	+63%
Italy	Google	97	−30%	−15%	+63%
Japan	Google + Wikipedia in Japanese	125	−41%	+113%	+120%
United Kingdom	Google	185	+11%	+203%	+206%
United States	Google + Wikipedia in English	104	−32%	−17%	+71%

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.

Relation	Scenario	Family
5 · Very high	A great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers S13 ↗	Geopolitical and security
4 · High	AI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step S17 ↗	Technology and infrastructure
3 · Moderate	Critical trade divides into rival blocs S01	Economic and trade
2 · Low	A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust S09	Technology and infrastructure
1 · Very low	A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity S10	Health
1 · Very low	A live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence S20 ↗	Health
0 · Not related	A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets S02	Economic and trade
0 · Not related	A regional war closes a globally important sea route S03	Geopolitical and security
0 · Not related	Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout S04	Geopolitical and security
0 · Not related	A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government S05	Geopolitical and security
0 · Not related	Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis S06	Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not related	A major disaster disables the national economic core S07	Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not related	An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement S08	Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not related	A creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity S11 ↗	Economic and trade
0 · Not related	A cross-regional market access compact redirects investment S12 ↗	Economic and trade
0 · Not related	A verified Middle East settlement restores access S14 ↗	Geopolitical and security
0 · Not related	Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale S15 ↗	Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not related	A validated farming package raises water-efficient output S16 ↗	Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not related	A public service platform reaches inclusive operation S18 ↗	Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not related	Affordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness S19 ↗	Health

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

Similarity	Trend	Theme	Rank
4 · High	International student flows	Diplomacy & influence	227
3 · Moderate	Diplomatic capacity under strain	Diplomacy & influence	16
3 · Moderate	Research & development intensity	People, health & work	18
3 · Moderate	Middle-power diplomatic leverage	Diplomacy & influence	36
3 · Moderate	Economic security policy	Trade, industry & supply chains	47
3 · Moderate	Technical standards competition	Diplomacy & influence	50
3 · Moderate	Credibility of external commitments	Diplomacy & influence	65
3 · Moderate	Weakening multilateral institutions	Diplomacy & influence	77