Sensitivity and network position
- Rank
- 3of 250
- Sensitivity
- 25.8rank 8
- Breadth
- 1of 20 scenarios High or above, 1 Critical
- PageRank
- 96.6rank 2
- Eigenvector
- 100.0
- Betweenness
- 33.5
- Links
- 30trends at Moderate similarity or above
- Composite
- 65.3
Attention over three years
How much this trend is read about on Wikipedia and searched for on Google, week by week, set against the typical trend in the list so that what moves every trend at once is taken out. 100 is this trend's own three-year average. The score measures public attention, which is not the same as the strength of the force: a trend can deepen unnoticed, and a news event can lift attention for a fortnight.
- Now
- 76
- Over a year
- −8%Steady
- Over three years
- −26%
- Peak
- 14315 Sept 2024
- Sources
- Bothagreement 0.78
- Coverage
- 20languages · 52 nations
Trailing 4-week average. 100 is this trend’s three-year average.
By language
Wikipedia reading in each language edition where the trend’s pages are read enough to measure (20 of 28). Share is of all the readers counted.
| Language | Share | Now | Over a year | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| English | 44% | 70 | −22% | |
| Spanish | 8% | 92 | +11% | |
| Russian | 7% | 90 | +13% | |
| Chinese | 6% | 83 | −9% | |
| Hindi | 5% | 70 | −23% | |
| German | 4% | 76 | −5% | |
| French | 4% | 80 | −13% | |
| Dutch | 3% | 72 | −22% | |
| Japanese | 3% | 106 | +13% | |
| Polish | 2% | 54 | −22% | |
| Turkish | 2% | 102 | +24% | |
| Ukrainian | 2% | 82 | +12% | |
| Arabic | 2% | 59 | −6% | |
| Hebrew | 2% | 71 | +18% | |
| Vietnamese | 1% | 97 | +30% | |
| Korean | 1% | 86 | −22% | |
| Persian | 1% | 77 | +5% | |
| Malay | 1% | 78 | −9% | |
| Indonesian | 1% | 59 | +17% | |
| Thai | 0% | 67 | −32% |
By country
Google search interest over the three years, as a share of each country’s searching. 100 is the nation where interest is highest. The search terms are English, which favours countries that search in English.
Nigeria
Zambia
Ghana
Ethiopia
United States
Uganda
Philippines
Kenya
Tanzania
Australia
South Africa
Singapore
100
62
57
49
45
36
34
31
31
30
28
21
The 12 highest of 52 nations with a reading.
By region and G20 member
Attention to this trend inside each place, from Google searches made in its countries and Wikipedia reading in the languages mostly read there, averaged where both exist. Each line compares the trend with its own past in that place; the lines do not compare places.
Regions
| Place | Read from | Now | 90 days | 1 year | 3 years | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| North America | Google in 2 countries + Wikipedia in English | 78 | +14% | −14% | −33% | |
| Europe | Google in 7 countries + Wikipedia in German, French, Polish, Dutch | 69 | −28% | −3% | −52% | |
| China | Google in 1 country | 74 | −39% | −11% | −28% | |
| Indo-Pacific | Google in 9 countries + Wikipedia in Japanese, Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese, Indonesian, Thai, Malay | 86 | +7% | −1% | −31% | |
| South Asia | Google in 3 countries + Wikipedia in Hindi | 73 | −14% | −24% | −42% | |
| Gulf and Middle East | Google in 1 country + Wikipedia in Persian, Arabic, Turkish, Hebrew | 85 | −18% | +32% | −31% | |
| Africa | Google in 4 countries | 49 | −41% | −28% | −54% | |
| Latin America and Caribbean | Google in 4 countries + Wikipedia in Spanish | 90 | −27% | +5% | −9% | |
| Russia and Eurasia | Google in 1 country + Wikipedia in Russian, Ukrainian | 76 | −29% | +44% | −53% |
G20 members
| Place | Read from | Now | 90 days | 1 year | 3 years | Three years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | 83 | +19% | −15% | −12% | ||
| Brazil | 97 | −24% | +3% | +29% | ||
| Canada | 83 | −10% | −6% | −22% | ||
| China | 74 | −39% | −11% | −28% | ||
| France | Google + Wikipedia in French | 66 | −32% | −6% | −60% | |
| Germany | Google + Wikipedia in German | 70 | −10% | −12% | −47% | |
| India | Google + Wikipedia in Hindi | 71 | −14% | −22% | −44% | |
| Indonesia | Google + Wikipedia in Indonesian | 63 | +20% | +13% | −68% | |
| Italy | 86 | −37% | +62% | −1% | ||
| Japan | Google + Wikipedia in Japanese | 104 | +7% | +6% | +8% | |
| South Korea | Google + Wikipedia in Korean | 116 | +2% | +39% | +67% | |
| Mexico | 73 | −34% | +6% | +1% | ||
| Russia | Wikipedia in Russian | 90 | −11% | +13% | −31% | |
| South Africa | 87 | +2% | −3% | +26% | ||
| Türkiye | Google + Wikipedia in Turkish | 97 | −14% | +38% | −11% | |
| United Kingdom | 67 | −13% | −13% | −54% | ||
| United States | Google + Wikipedia in English | 78 | +23% | −14% | −35% |
Relation to each scenario
A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.
| Relation | Scenario | Family |
|---|---|---|
| 6 · Critical | A disputed transfer of power breaks effective government S05 | Geopolitical and security |
| 3 · Moderate | A creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity S11 ↗ | Economic and trade |
| 3 · Moderate | A verified Middle East settlement restores access S14 ↗ | Geopolitical and security |
| 3 · Moderate | A public service platform reaches inclusive operation S18 ↗ | Technology and infrastructure |
| 2 · Low | A global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets S02 | Economic and trade |
| 2 · Low | Hybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout S04 | Geopolitical and security |
| 2 · Low | A cross-regional market access compact redirects investment S12 ↗ | Economic and trade |
| 1 · Very low | Critical trade divides into rival blocs S01 | Economic and trade |
| 1 · Very low | A major disaster disables the national economic core S07 | Energy, climate and resources |
| 1 · Very low | A cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust S09 | Technology and infrastructure |
| 1 · Very low | A novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity S10 | Health |
| 1 · Very low | A great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers S13 ↗ | Geopolitical and security |
| 1 · Very low | Cheap firm clean power becomes available at scale S15 ↗ | Energy, climate and resources |
| 1 · Very low | A validated farming package raises water-efficient output S16 ↗ | Energy, climate and resources |
| 1 · Very low | AI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step S17 ↗ | Technology and infrastructure |
| 1 · Very low | Affordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness S19 ↗ | Health |
| 1 · Very low | A live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence S20 ↗ | Health |
| 0 · Not related | A regional war closes a globally important sea route S03 | Geopolitical and security |
| 0 · Not related | Two breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis S06 | Energy, climate and resources |
| 0 · Not related | An AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement S08 | Technology and infrastructure |
Related trends
Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.
| Similarity | Trend | Theme | Rank |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 · Very high | Executive overreach & emergency powers | State capacity & governance | 4 |
| 5 · Very high | Corruption & state capture | State capacity & governance | 5 |
| 5 · Very high | Regulatory capture & lobbying power | State capacity & governance | 8 |
| 5 · Very high | Polarisation & populism | State capacity & governance | 15 |
| 5 · Very high | Citizen participation & deliberative democracy | State capacity & governance | 60 |
| 4 · High | State capacity & delivery | State capacity & governance | 1 |
| 4 · High | Civil service capability & pay | State capacity & governance | 2 |
| 4 · High | Erosion of rights & civic freedoms | State capacity & governance | 14 |
| 4 · High | Fiscal rules & budget credibility | State capacity & governance | 17 |
| 4 · High | Civil unrest & protest mobilisation | State capacity & governance | 25 |
| 4 · High | Central bank independence under pressure | State capacity & governance | 64 |
| 3 · Moderate | Public procurement capability | State capacity & governance | 6 |
| 3 · Moderate | Declining institutional trust | Information & trust | 7 |
| 3 · Moderate | Local & city government capacity | State capacity & governance | 11 |
| 3 · Moderate | Sovereign debt & interest burden | Money & debt | 12 |
| 3 · Moderate | Social protection coverage gaps | State capacity & governance | 13 |
| 3 · Moderate | Diplomatic capacity under strain | Diplomacy & influence | 16 |
| 3 · Moderate | Illicit finance & beneficial ownership | State capacity & governance | 20 |
| 3 · Moderate | Official statistics & data capacity | State capacity & governance | 21 |
| 3 · Moderate | Outsourcing & public-private delivery | State capacity & governance | 27 |
| 3 · Moderate | Decline of independent journalism | Information & trust | 29 |
| 3 · Moderate | Adaptive regulation | State capacity & governance | 33 |
| 3 · Moderate | Middle-power diplomatic leverage | Diplomacy & influence | 36 |
| 3 · Moderate | Data protection & digital rights | State capacity & governance | 44 |
| 3 · Moderate | Election integrity & interference | Information & trust | 57 |
| 3 · Moderate | Credibility of external commitments | Diplomacy & influence | 65 |
| 3 · Moderate | Global South coalitions | Diplomacy & influence | 72 |
| 3 · Moderate | Weakening multilateral institutions | Diplomacy & influence | 77 |
| 3 · Moderate | Asylum & migration system strain | State capacity & governance | 115 |
| 3 · Moderate | State fragility & intrastate violence | Conflict & security | 183 |