GINC Trends
Design System
Trend · rank 38 of 250

Trade corridor competition

Rival states and lenders are financing ports, railways and energy routes to redirect trade towards themselves, which gives host nations new connectivity but can add debt and dependence on the financing power.

Trade & InvestmentTrade, industry & supply chainslogisticsgeoeconomicstrade

Second pass: Carried forward from the first pass, where it was Infrastructure corridor competition. Held by all three panel models.

Sensitivity and network position

Rank
38of 250
Sensitivity
10.0rank 118
Breadth
0of 20 scenarios High or above
PageRank
58.7rank 25
Eigenvector
3.8
Betweenness
45.5
Links
21trends at Moderate similarity or above
Composite
34.7

Attention over three years

How much this trend is read about on Wikipedia and searched for on Google, week by week, set against the typical trend in the list so that what moves every trend at once is taken out. 100 is this trend's own three-year average. The score measures public attention, which is not the same as the strength of the force: a trend can deepen unnoticed, and a news event can lift attention for a fortnight.

Now
84
Over a year
−18%Easing
Over three years
+1%
Peak
37515 Oct 2023
Sources
Bothagreement 0.87
Coverage
22languages · 66 nations

Trailing 4-week average. 100 is this trend’s three-year average.

By language

Wikipedia reading in each language edition where the trend’s pages are read enough to measure (22 of 28). Share is of all the readers counted.

LanguageShareNowOver a yearThree years
English59%82−7%
Chinese14%90+9%
Japanese5%83−7%
Russian5%71−38%
German4%97−4%
French3%86−11%
Persian1%90−43%
Italian1%80−20%
Arabic1%103−18%
Spanish1%78+20%
Portuguese1%82−44%
Vietnamese1%54−44%
Korean1%54−46%
Turkish1%71−32%
Hebrew0%131+56%
Dutch0%96−7%
Ukrainian0%68−39%
Hindi0%75−47%
Indonesian0%119−11%
Swedish0%90−27%
Thai0%59−53%
Bengali0%112−12%

By country

Google search interest over the three years, as a share of each country’s searching. 100 is the nation where interest is highest. The search terms are English, which favours countries that search in English.

China

Singapore

Myanmar

Azerbaijan

Ethiopia

Pakistan

Georgia

Cambodia

South Korea

United States

Malaysia

Nepal

100

35

24

22

19

19

17

15

14

12

11

11

The 12 highest of 66 nations with a reading.

By region and G20 member

Attention to this trend inside each place, from Google searches made in its countries and Wikipedia reading in the languages mostly read there, averaged where both exist. Each line compares the trend with its own past in that place; the lines do not compare places.

Regions

PlaceRead fromNow90 days1 year3 yearsThree years
North AmericaGoogle in 2 countries + Wikipedia in English83−26%−22%−39%
EuropeGoogle in 4 countries + Wikipedia in German, French, Italian, Dutch, Swedish78−36%−4%−48%
ChinaGoogle in 1 country35−32%−49%−90%
Indo-PacificGoogle in 4 countries + Wikipedia in Japanese, Chinese, Korean, Vietnamese, Indonesian, Thai87−22%+7%−50%
South AsiaGoogle in 2 countries + Wikipedia in Hindi, Bengali85−22%−23%−34%
Gulf and Middle EastWikipedia in Persian, Arabic, Turkish, Hebrew96−32%−23%−9%
Latin America and CaribbeanGoogle in 1 country + Wikipedia in Spanish, Portuguese85−29%−20%−9%
Russia and EurasiaWikipedia in Russian, Ukrainian70−34%−39%−51%

G20 members

PlaceRead fromNow90 days1 year3 yearsThree years
AustraliaGoogle88−16%−40%−44%
BrazilGoogle + Wikipedia in Portuguese85−29%−32%+12%
CanadaGoogle79−29%−62%−48%
ChinaGoogle35−32%−49%−90%
FranceGoogle + Wikipedia in French59−52%−26%−53%
GermanyGoogle + Wikipedia in German89−27%+34%−44%
IndiaGoogle + Wikipedia in Hindi, Bengali89−11%−22%−32%
IndonesiaGoogle + Wikipedia in Indonesian116−15%+23%−5%
ItalyGoogle + Wikipedia in Italian78−42%−11%−47%
JapanGoogle + Wikipedia in Japanese83−19%+6%−64%
South KoreaGoogle + Wikipedia in Korean66−39%−15%−49%
RussiaWikipedia in Russian71−32%−39%−51%
TürkiyeWikipedia in Turkish71−34%−32%−45%
United KingdomGoogle76−14%−6%−59%
United StatesGoogle + Wikipedia in English83−27%−9%−38%

Relation to each scenario

A trend relates to a scenario when it changes how likely the scenario is, how hard it lands, or is itself sharply changed by it. Each score is the median of three scores given separately by the members of the model panel.

RelationScenarioFamily
3 · ModerateCritical trade divides into rival blocs S01Economic and trade
3 · ModerateA cross-regional market access compact redirects investment S12 ↗Economic and trade
3 · ModerateA verified Middle East settlement restores access S14 ↗Geopolitical and security
2 · LowA regional war closes a globally important sea route S03Geopolitical and security
1 · Very lowA great-power agreement lowers economic security barriers S13 ↗Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedA global funding seizure reaches sovereign balance sheets S02Economic and trade
0 · Not relatedHybrid coercion ends in an infrastructure blackout S04Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedA disputed transfer of power breaks effective government S05Geopolitical and security
0 · Not relatedTwo breadbasket failures trigger a food availability crisis S06Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedA major disaster disables the national economic core S07Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedAn AI deployment step causes abrupt labour displacement S08Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not relatedA cryptographic breakthrough invalidates digital trust S09Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not relatedA novel respiratory pathogen exceeds health surge capacity S10Health
0 · Not relatedA creditor agreement releases fiscal capacity S11 ↗Economic and trade
0 · Not relatedCheap firm clean power becomes available at scale S15 ↗Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedA validated farming package raises water-efficient output S16 ↗Energy, climate and resources
0 · Not relatedAI-directed research produces a reproducible discovery step S17 ↗Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not relatedA public service platform reaches inclusive operation S18 ↗Technology and infrastructure
0 · Not relatedAffordable preventive treatments reduce chronic illness S19 ↗Health
0 · Not relatedA live outbreak proves rapid distributed pandemic defence S20 ↗Health

Related trends

Similarity = 0.3 × shared tags (Jaccard) + 0.3 × likeness of scenario profiles (cosine) + 0.3 × likeness of names and descriptions (TF-IDF cosine) + 0.1 if in the same capability domain, cut into seven levels at 0.12, 0.22, 0.33, 0.45, 0.58, 0.72. Shown at Moderate and above.

SimilarityTrendThemeRank
5 · Very highSanctions circumvention networksTrade, industry & supply chains140
4 · HighForeign investment slowdown & selectivityTrade, industry & supply chains23
4 · HighExport controls & economic coercionTrade, industry & supply chains34
4 · HighTrade & investment fragmentationTrade, industry & supply chains37
4 · HighTariff barrier normalisationTrade, industry & supply chains58
4 · HighShifting economic weightTrade, industry & supply chains78
4 · HighPort & carrier concentrationTrade, industry & supply chains94
4 · HighRegional trade agreement deepeningTrade, industry & supply chains105
3 · ModerateIndustrial policy competitionTrade, industry & supply chains26
3 · ModerateMiddle-power diplomatic leverageDiplomacy & influence36
3 · ModerateEconomic security policyTrade, industry & supply chains47
3 · ModerateManufacturing overcapacityTrade, industry & supply chains51
3 · ModerateCritical input supplier concentrationTrade, industry & supply chains74
3 · ModerateRare earth processing concentrationTrade, industry & supply chains102
3 · ModerateSovereign wealth & state capitalTrade, industry & supply chains108
3 · ModerateDigital & services trade growthTrade, industry & supply chains116
3 · ModerateContested maritime accessConflict & security117
3 · ModerateAfrica's demographic & economic riseTrade, industry & supply chains172
3 · ModerateLean inventories & just-in-time logisticsTrade, industry & supply chains184
3 · ModerateNon-tariff compliance & traceabilityTrade, industry & supply chains185
3 · ModerateTrade & logistics digitalisationTrade, industry & supply chains189